This piece first appeared in Saga Magazine in June 2004
The text here may not be identical to the published text

 

To sell or not to sell

Is now the time you should be cashing in on your biggest asset? Put another way, is the housing bubble about to burst? Recently three separate analysts have said it is. First up was David Pannell, Director of Research with the investment bank Durlacher. Speaking on Radio 4 in March he said house prices would fall by 30 per cent.

"I think the housing market at the moment is a bubble and bubbles are defined by people behaving irrationally. I fully expect them to drop, probably by around 30%. My gut feel says that the housing market will turn this year."

Then came Tony Dye. He became famous in the 1990s when, as investment manager for a major investment fund, he was a lone voice warning that shares were overpriced and predicting the bubble would burst. Between January 2000 and March 2003 share prices halved. Now he has told the Financial Times the housing boom is over and prices could fall over the next five years by 30 per cent.

"I think we have reached the point where the rises are no longer sustainable and correction is likely to be fairly dramatic – about as bad in real terms as the crash in the 1980s…We are probably somewhere near the end of it. [It] will all end in tears. Everyone is hoping for a soft landing but we don’t have soft landings in things like this, ever."

And finally investment bank Goldman Sachs entered the fray. A smaller fall – 10 to 15 per cent according to its senior European economist Ben Broadbent – but it would start later this year and take two years.

There certainly is evidence to support those who predict a fall. Unaffordability is one thing. In eight of ten major towns, people on average incomes cannot afford to buy an average home. The average home is now 6.7 times average annual pay. Even with a big deposit you need to borrow more than five times average pay to buy the average home. Five years ago, the average home was around four times average annual earnings and borrowing three or three and a half times earnings was often sufficient. Many lenders still stick to that formula and will only lend three or three and a half times pay. Without first time buyers the market will eventually collapse. The graph shows how the gap between earnings and house prices opened up from the start of 2000 and continues to widen.

House prices – Halifax data; Average Earnings Index – National Statistics; Share prices – FTSE All Share. All rebased to April 1994=1000.

The other indicator is the sheer rise itself. From March 2003 to March this year the price of the average home rose by £24,281 - £467 a week. A homeowner on average pay made more in a year from their home than their work. That cannot go on forever.

Against these arguments other economists point to the iron rule of supply and demand. There are just not enough homes to go round, A Government report published with the Budget said to control prices we needed to build up to 120,000 more homes every year – almost doubling the annual number of private homes built.

But whether prices rise further, fall gently, or crash if you already have a home you need not worry. And it is never wise to rush into schemes that let you realise some of its value just because some people think the market is about to fall. After all it is your home, not your savings plan.

THANKS A TRILLION (1,000,000,000,000)
The trillion has arrived in style. Between us we own homes worth three trillion pounds, says Halifax, Britain’s biggest mortgage lender. Bank of England figures show that total personal borrowing will soon reach one trillion pounds and when it does, ‘trillion’ will make a regular appearance in the headlines..

So what is a trillion? A trillion is big, really big. Some English dictionaries still list it under ‘billion’. Until the middle of the last century a billion in the UK was a million million. But in the US a billion means only a thousand million. That definition has come to be accepted around the world – and is now official in scientific and financial circles. So a million million has been promoted to a trillion. A thousand billion. Or 1,000,000,000,000. Either way, one helluva lot.

LONGEVITY HITS ANNUITIES
If you are wondering when to retire and are put off by the low level of pension that your savings will buy, do not put it off hoping the rates will rise. They won’t. That clear warning has been given by actuaries and annuity specialists this spring. The culprit is, once more, growing life expectancy. Actuaries meeting in London were told in April that life expectancy was continuing to rise – and by more than they had expected. So when our pension fund is used to buy an income for life – called an annuity – it has to stretch over more years.

These experts are predicting that by 2019 annuities will be up to 60 per cent more expensive – in other words the same pension fund would buy less than two thirds the pension it would buy today. So there is no point in deferring your purchase in the hope things will get better. If anything they will get worse.

Behind this change is the pace of medical advance. People are surviving diseases now that would have killed them just a few years ago. That, of course, is good. But we all pay the price in more expensive pensions. And the number crunchers at the Actuarial Institute have found a new phenomenon. "The ages showing the greatest improvements are steadily moving upwards" And that means more and more people are living into their second century. And that is scary for companies which have promised a pension for life.

Stuart Bayliss the chief executive of Annity Direct – an Independent Financial Adviser who specialises in annuities – says you should not defer buying an annuity.

"This is absolutely the wrong time to be putting it off. We hit rock bottom last summer interest rates have improved slightly, about 3% better since then. But they’re not likely to continue to rise. They are pushed down by the increase in longevity."

TAX ANSWERS
Our tax system is notoriously complicated. The rules affect us all and people on incomes that are too low to afford an accountant can be caught out and end up paying too much tax. The Low Incomes Tax Reform Group campaigns for simpler tax rules. And it now has a comprehensive website where you can get advice and find answers to a lot of common questions.

In some areas it can also provide individual help to people who need it. Founder and chairman John Andrews says "The most common questions we help with are incorrect tax codes. That can be caused by the Inland Revenue having the wrong date of birth or getting the amount of the state pension wrong. That leads to too much tax being deducted – and we help people who have been poorly treated and want compensation."

The advice is given free by professional tax specialists. There are free tax clinics in some parts of the country and there is a helpline 0845 601 3321.

But the main work of the charity is to campaign for a better deal. And John Andrew encourages people to tell him about their problems through the website. "We want to persuade the government and Inland Revenue to make things easier for people on low incomes. That relies on getting evidence so everything people tell us through the website www.litrg.org.uk is helpful."

HOW TO SPARKLE
They are beyond the dreams of most of us. But if you have a six figure sum to buy a jewel, Christies has this wonderful antique diamond necklace in its sale of Important Jewellery on June 14. There are cheaper items perhaps, down to the low thousands for a pair of Art Deco ruby and diamond earrings from around 1925 (estimate: £6,000-8,000) and an 18th century diamond, ruby and emerald floral brooch from the late 1700s for a similar estimated price.

Christies has regular sales of less expensive jewels at its South Kensington auctin rooms. There you can still find gems among the jewels for under £1000 – a unique historic item that will glisten and sparkle.

But beware spending too much. The object of your love might get suspicious. Footballer David Beckham was reported to have given his wife Victoria a ring with a very rare pink diamond ring after reports of his infidelity made headline news. The million pound gift represents about three weeks' earnings for the England captain. The joint wealth of the Beckhams was recently estimated at £65 million by the Sunday Times.

 

 

June 2004


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