This piece first appeared in Saga Magazine in January 2004
The text here may not be identical to the published text

 

Money News

A force to reckon with

GREY POWER

People over 50 look like becoming the most powerful group in the country by the time of the next election . Issues like pensions, council tax, inheritance tax and fairer treatment of assets when people who need to go into care will all become key battlegrounds. A combination of strength in numbers, plus a determination to get out and vote which far exceeds younger voters means that no party will be able to ignore the concerns of grey power.

About four out of ten people who can vote are over 50. But older people are much more likely to vote than the younger ones. In the 2001 General Election just 39% of 18-24 year olds voted and only 46% of those aged 25 to 34. But among the over 55s, 70% put their cross on a ballot paper.

In 2003 at the local elections, the difference was even more marked. Turnout was of course lower with only about one in three people bothering to vote. But while barely one in five of the 18-34 year olds voted, just about half of the over 55s went to the polls.

Combine those figures with the growing proportion of older people in the population and you can see that political power is more and more in the hands of older voters. These findings are a particular worry to Labour because older voters are the least supportive of New Labour. Labour outstripped the Tories by 6% in 2001. But among the over-55s the Conservatives had a majority of 1%. After the 2001 election this was identified by political analysts Bob Worcester and Roger Mortimore as "Tony Blair’s biggest remaining political challenge". If the fight is closer by the time the next general election comes along in 2005 or 2006, winning the grey vote will become even more important.

The most important issues for older people are pensions - where the Tories have already pledged to out-Labour Labour by reversing Margaret Thatcher’s decision to cut the link between pensions and earnings - National Health Service, crime, inflation, tax; and paying for long-term care. Four out of six of those are directly about money. They will be the concern of the majority of voters at the next election..

LIES, DAMN LIES AND DETECTORS

False insurance claims cost the insurance industry about £1 billion a year, but how do you sort the minority – the dishonest claimants - from the great majority whose claims are entirely honest? At least two major insurance companies are now putting callers through a ‘ lie detector’ test in the hope of weeding out claims although the results so far are inconclusive.

In truth, there is no such thing as a machine that can tell if we are lying. But there are computer programs that analyse speech to detect stress. And stress can mean we are not telling the truth.

Admiral, the low cost car insurance company, put a fifth of its car theft claims through the system. At first the results sound impressive – a quarter of claims were withdrawn. But spokesman Justin Beddows told Saga Magazine "Normally about 22% would withdraw anyway, either because the value of the claim was too low or because the car had been recovered. The difference is not yet statistically significant so we are continuing the trial." Saga has learned that just 15 extra claims were withdrawn as a result of the test – and no-one can tell if they were fraudulent or not.

Halifax General Insurance is also testing the system on one in a hundred of its home insurance claims. A three month pilot is due to end this month [January]. Only one motor insurance company, Highway, uses the system routinely. It says that 70% of claims are passed by the system without question, another 12% are questioned but eventually paid, and 18% are withdrawn or rejected. In the past only 5% of claims were withdrawn or refused as fraudulent. Highway says that customers that are passed by the software are ‘fast-tracked’, that no complaints have been received, and that the savings on false claims keep down premiums for everyone else.

Winning both ways

After two years of belt-tightening and staff cuts, those big City bonuses are back. But this year it is a new breed of City trader who is getting the biggest rewards. Since the stock market crash of 2000, the star fund managers are less in evidence. When the value of shares rose every year by 13%, it was hard not to make money. But today, even with shares rising, a lot more ingenuity is needed. Two groups are in favour. The traders that deal in ‘fixed interest’ products such as bonds backed by state banks such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England – are much in demand. They make their money by buying and selling these products as the cost of them changes fractionally on the markets. Second are the people in what are called ‘derivatives’. They do not buy financial products at all – but they buy the right to buy or sell them at a particular price at a future date.

‘Interest rate derivatives’ are the key money-making product at the moment – buying and selling the future rights to products that carry a fixed interest rate. Some people in this business earn £3 million a year and can expect a bonus of 30% of that – close on £1 million. Even junior staff can get big rewards. Armstrong International, a company which finds top staff for financial services companies, interviewed professionals in 11 top investment banks and says that in the top three firms some staff with just three years’ experience will be expecting bonuses of more than £500,000.

Lower down, bonuses are more likely to double salary – and with some people earning six figure salaries that should have made a very nice Christmas box.

Sink your money on a sub

You can buy a car for a few hundred pounds. You can buy an aeroplane for a few tens of thousands. And at last you can buy your own personal submarine – for a few hundred thousands. The three-seater Aquarius is described by its inventor Robert Leeds as an "underwater sports car". You can go underwater for two hours to a depth of up to 50 metres – though the submarine is safe for twice that depth and 72 hours. And if its top speed of 7 knots is hardly breathtaking, its price of £500,000 certainly is. So far only the two-seater evaluation model – the Gemini – has been built and tested. Subeo is taking orders for Aquarius – but whether the company will float or sink without trace depends on sales.

Further information www.subeo.com

Time is money

Since 8 AD we have put an extra day in every fourth year to try to keep the calendar in step with the actual time it takes the Earth to complete one circuit of the Sun. Normally it has little effect on our finances. But this Leap Year will cost everyone who gets a state pension or other state benefit. They go up every April on the first Monday of the tax year, which begins on April 6. Last year the first Monday was April 7 and benefits went up in that week. This year it would have fallen on April 6th – but the Leap Day pushes that forward and the first Monday of the tax year 2004/05 is in fact April 12th. Making us all wait an extra week for that 2.8% rise. And saving the government about £60 million.

Sorting it all out

State benefits have never been so complicated. Only experts can work out if an individual is entitled to pension credit, help with council tax, or tax credits. That expertise has now been turned into an easy-to-use website where, in a couple of minutes, anyone can find out what benefits they are entitled to and how to claim. It has been developed as a public service by ex-civil servant and academic Dr Phil Agulnik. He told Saga "The problem has been getting a design that appeals to people and is easy to use. You can find some calculators on the web but despite the talk of joined-up Government, nothing else integrates them all online in one place."

The website is free to use. If you do not have a computer at home – or a friendly relative with one – you can get free access to the web at many libraries or social centres where someone may also be on hand to help you.

www.entitledto.co.uk

January 2004


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