Yes, we can be moved

Between now and the General Election – which could come as soon as May this year but need not be held until May 2002 – Saga Magazine will be find out what you – our readers – think about politics, leaders, and policies. With people over 50 now accounting for more than four out of ten of the electorate, your views count as never before. The first poll was conducted either side of the Chancellor’s pre-Budget statement on November 8. Paul Lewis analyses the results.

What a fickle lot you are. You vote Conservative – and would do so again tomorrow – but you think the Labour Chancellor’s plans were generally a good thing. You think the Government has done a good job managing the economy but not in handling tax and public spending (what is the economy if not that!). You want more for pensioners, but you would not support a ‘grey’ party to campaign on these issues.

Now when I say ‘you’ I mean of course a majority of the people in the sample of 2006 Saga readers polled by telephone in this survey. It does not represent the views of all of you or indeed of any individuals. But this scientifically conducted poll by MORI should represent the overall views of Saga readers at the time it was done.

And just to show that you really are a Conservative lot, here is how you voted last time.

Two things emerge from these results. First you are more likely to get out and vote than the population as a whole. Overall, nearly one person in three (29%) did not bother to vote last time, whereas only 7% - about 1 in 14 of you – say you did not bother in 1997. Second, you are much more Conservative than those who did vote last time. Overall in the UK Labour got 45% of the vote and the Conservatives 31% - though those figures only include those who did actually vote. If you do the same with the Saga votes – take out the don’t knows, and those who didn’t vote or refused to answer – then, according to your memories, nearly half voted Conservative (48%), almost a third voted Labour (29%), just under one in five voted Liberal Democrat (18%) and one in twenty of you (5%) voted nationalist, green, or another minority party.

So how would you vote if there was an Election tomorrow? Apparently much the same way, though more of your would vote Conservative and fewer would vote Labour. The Saga poll asked half of the sample before the Chancellor’s Pre-Budget statement on November 8 and half after. And for a national comparison, a phone poll of the general population was done a week earlier. Here is what you said.

We can see two things from this table. First, the Chancellor did entice some of you to move towards Labour with his give-away plans. The party was up five points, with those votes coming almost equally from the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. But second, even after that, Saga readers are still well out of line with the whole population – more would vote Conservative and far fewer would vote Labour. Hence my opening remarks – what a Conservative lot you are!

Now with more than £4 billion offered to pensioners together with some concessions on the price of fuel and more spending promised on health and schools – all issues you care about a lot – it would have been very sad for the Government if the Pre-Budget statement on November 8 had not enticed some of you back to the Labour fold. So what did you like about the Chancellor’s offer?

Before the Pre-Budget statement, your answers on the economy were contradictory. Only a shade above four out ten thought that Gordon Brown was doing a good job and a similar proportion believed that in the long term the Government’s policies would improve the country’s economy. Just over half disagreed with those statements. That, I suspect, is because of the bias towards the Conservatives revealed in your voting intentions. On the other hand, when asked about specific things on the economy, well over half (57%) thought that the government had done a good job at managing the economy but a similar number thought it had done a bad job at handling tax and public spending. Three-quarters thought it had done a good job keeping unemployment down.

After the pre-budget statement those proportions were much the same. But the reaction to Gordon Brown’s proposals was generally enthusiastic. You voted two to one that they would be good for you with even more saying they would be good for older people generally.

But you thought he could have gone further. His £5 increase in the basic single pension – and £8 for most couples – was appreciated, but only a third of you thought it was enough. Those who thought it should be more wanted, on average, an extra £14.26 a week for a single person and an extra £21.46 for a couple. And there were other warnings to the Government. Only a minority agreed with the Government’s policy of targeting the biggest pension increases on those with lower incomes. A clear majority (55%) wanted the same increases for everyone regardless of income. And another clear majority – 56% – wanted the basic retirement pension increased in line with earnings. That of course is a policy the Government has very clearly turned its back on.

The Saga readers sampled were clear about the major issues facing Britain. Here is your top ten in order: Health, Europe, Pensions, Education, Petrol, Crime, Economy, Transport, Tax, Pollution. And when asked for the single most important, the top five, in order, were Europe, Health, Petrol, Pensions, the Economy.

Pensions, health, crime, and transport are of course all traditional concerns of older people. But it was surprising that Europe came so high in the list – beating both health and pensions for top place when it came to choosing the single most important issue facing the country. Another surprise in the list is the high position of ‘petrol’ as an issue. When the poll was conducted the price of fuel was very much in the news. It was a few days before the deadline issued by the fuel protesters was due to expire and many people feared another round of protests and fuel shortages. And Saga readers were clear about their views – cut the duty on petrol and diesel. Barely a quarter supported the Government’s policy of freezing the duty on fuel. And only one in twenty thought the duty should be raised to reduce the fuel used and help the environment.

On the whole it was those issues that would decide how you voted, and on most of them you rated the Conservatives better than Labour at solving the problems.

The worrying thing for Labour is that on all but one of the these issues more of your thought the Conservative Party would deal with them best. And even on the one issue where you prefer Labour, health care, the margin was close – 32% thought Labur would deal with it best and 30% voted for the Conservatives to do so.

Central to any political party nowadays is its Leader – after all he or she will become Prime Minister if the party wins an Election. And generally you did not think much of them – Charles Kennedy was the best thought of – more than four out of ten (42%) were satisfied with the way he was doing his job leading the Liberal Democrats. William Hague fared rather worse with just over a third (35%) satisfied with him. And poor old Tony Blair was rated by even fewer – just 31%. And twice as many – 62% - were dissatisfied with how he was doing as Party leader. Among voters for their own parties, of course, they all did rather better with 85% of Labour supporters thinking Mr Blair would make the most capable prime minister while 50% thought that of Mr Hague. And Mr Hague can take some comfort from the fact that if the Conservatives lose the next Election, he remains favourite to lead the Party. His 25% of the vote just beat Michael Portillo (22%) and was well above Anne Widdecombe (14%).

Finally, you are rather conservative with a small ‘c’ about your politics. Asked if you would vote for a new ‘grey’ party which focused solely on issues that affected people aged over 50, only 12% of you – about one in eight – would be ‘certain’ or ‘very likely’ to vote for it. More than half – 51% - were ‘very unlikely’ or ‘certain’ not to vote for a grey party. Grey power? Maybe. Grey party? Probably not.

MORI interviewed 1004 readers by telephone between November 3 and 7 and also interviewed 1002 readers between November 10 and 16. Data is weighted to the profile of Saga Magazine readers.

Click here for full results of the MORI poll.

January 2001

e-mail Paul Lewis on paul@paullewis.co.uk